The advisory firm, McKinsey, has published a view of the future of work this month.
In it, they quote research commissioned by Lyndon Johnson in the 1960s, saying “technology destroys jobs, but not work.” I tend to agree that this will be the case: there will be no shortage of work but what you do today may not be the way you generate an income tomorrow. I am of the view that it will take many years before the work catches up to the jobs. What that means is that a generation or thereabouts will be out of jobs while work catches up.
Some of McKinsey‘s key findings are:
- Automation will generate benefits for users, businesses, and economies, lifting productivity and economic growth;
- Although approximately half of all work activities globally have the potential to be automated, work actually displaced by 2030 will likely be lower; and
- Even if there is enough work to ensure full employment by 2030, major transitions lie ahead that could match or even exceed the scale of historical shifts out of agriculture and manufacturing.McKinsey’s scenarios suggest that by 2030, 3 to 14 percent of the global workforce will need to switch occupational categories;
Sectors that are affected corroborate with other research:
“Our findings suggest that several trends that may serve as catalysts of future labor demand could create demand for millions of jobs by 2030. These trends include caring for others in aging societies, raising energy efficiency and meeting climate challenges, producing goods and services for the expanding consuming class, especially in developing countries, not to mention the investment in technology, infrastructure, and buildings needed in all countries.”
Worth a read. And worth starting to read so you’re not left on the dross pile.