An article in Engineering.com talks about China’s aspirations to build a new Silk Road, reaching — overland — to Nairobi and Rotterdam. The project is scheduled to complete mid-21st Century ie 2049. It will traverse a lot of countries, and many are delighted about the prospect of the prosperity being a thoroughfare will create.
The article, however, is skeptical about the viability of the road as a project. I am less so. These are my reasons:
- China’s commercial interests are run by the state. It has the authority to make things happen.
- The Chinese have a long term orientation. They have built empty city and empty motorway infrastructure already, in preparation for the population’s move from the country to the city. At some point in the 21st Century. But the buildings are ready and waiting. Their long term infrastructure capabilities are still the only man-made structure that can be seen from the moon.
- No one else is showing a global trading desire. With the EU caught in uniting 27 different points of view and the USA in protectionist retreat, China is stepping forward to become the world’s next superpower. Its ability, through being able to think longer than the next quarter or beyond the next election cycle mean it can make some pretty bold plays.
The article is heavy on the detail, so a long read. But worth taking a look at some of the implications of the Silk Road.
I believe it will give China the means to claim its technological pedigree as the leader over the USA, and stake long term ambitions in a way that sharing the ideas behind fireworks and, possibly, pasta, never permitted. It will also have enormous potential impact in countries that the “road”traverses, as explained by the World Economic Forum:
“‘The aim of the $900 billion scheme, as China explained recently, is to kindle a “new era of globalization”, a golden age of commerce that will benefit all. Beijing says it will ultimately lend as much as $8 trillion for infrastructure in 68 countries. That adds up to as much as 65% of the global population and a third of global GDP, according to the global consultancy McKinsey.”
Not a lot of that kind of expansionist thinking going on in other government proclamations… But the quality experience of the road itself may not be at the same standard as the usual European or US roadside experiences. Think, perhaps, about a camper van.