Davos is in full swing as I write and, to coincide with the gathering of this gathering of the great of today, the World Economic Forum has released a number of publications prognosticating upon the Future of Work. Indeed, the Fourth Industrial Revolution label is owed to Klaus Schwab, founder of the WEF, so this is a persistent theme in the WEF’s work. He is very much an alarmist about the coming technological changes. But, as I somewhat share his sense of urgency about these things, I find their reports compelling reading.
One of the White Papers released this week is a set of eight scenarios on the Future of Work, derived from three variables at polar extremes of each: Technological change (accelerated or steady progression), Learning Evolution (fast or slow), and Talent Mobility (high or low). The resulting scenarios, depending on which way the switch is flicked between these three variables are:
- Workforce Autarkies
- Mass Movement
- Robot Replacement
- Polarized World
- Empowered Entrepreneurs
- Skilled Flows
- Productive Locals
- Agile Adapters
The last scenario pertains to accelerated technological advances, fast learning evolution, and high talent mobility. As I work for a tech company, this one felt the most likely option to me. But I think that’s a bit like confirming your biases via your Facebook news feed. We are what we continually do, and what we continually read on our “like” driven social media feeds.. I suspect, for other industries or individuals, or residents of locations less technologically advanced, a number of the other scenarios might feel more likely or relevant.
William Gibson once said, “the future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed.” Most of the material published about the technological dystopia is based on mature country concerns that meaningful human work is going to be replaced with machine technology. But the truth is that much of the world has yet to even get access to technology, never mind the learning necessary to be a swimmer in a globally mobile talent pool. Many, I fear, will never even get near that pond. So, much as I love these scenarios, I feel they represents the concerns of the types of folks who are able to visit Davos in mid-January: Hotels.com tells me the town is 98% booked tonight, but that I could have the one room left in the last hotel for a mere $1351. As a long time resident of Switzerland, I can attest to the fact that this is not a good deal.
Despite my misgivings regarding the universal applicability of these scenarios, it makes for an interesting thought experiment to assess these futures. The authors clearly believe that it’s going to be necessary to learn new skills to adapt in the future and that policy makers will need to intervene. I agree with much of what they are advancing: lifelong learning has never been more important, keeping an eye on tech changes in your area is key, and learning to deal with change is paramount. But, for me, a key accelerator is doing that now, for yourself. While our companies and governments may catch up for the population, we can all get the jump on tomorrow by the investments we make in ourselves today.
The future, I guarantee, will come in lumps and bumps and not in extreme spectral ends like WEF’s scenarios. Equipping oneself with a cognitive 4×4 will be helpful in traversing that terrain.